The pandemic caused by COVID 19 has already changed our lives in unimaginable ways until a year ago and despite collective efforts to implement mass vaccination as soon as possible, the disease is still with us and we do not know how long and how the its aftermath will continue to influence our society. Analyzing the impact of this historic event within the universe of markets and in particular the real estate one is obviously not a simple exercise, but having already passed almost a year since the first tragic deaths in Europe and the first containment measures from governments, we are starting to have enough data to develop credible analyzes, focusing mainly on the residential real estate market.
For the drafting of these forecasts we used data from Istat, Nomisma, Scenari Immobiliari, MerctaoImmobiliare.info and Corriere della Sera.
The general trend of the market
Obviously there has been a slowdown, but less dramatic than expected, in fact there is a general decrease in the price of houses, but a limited decrease, with the new market going against the trend as evidenced by the IPAB index (House Price Index) of the Istat, which reports price increases for the first three quarters of the year. On the other hand, by analyzing the number of transactions, a drop of 14% emerges in 2020 compared to the previous year, a significant but not dramatic number, if we consider the two months of lockdown in which it was not possible to visit the houses or obviously conclude the transactions. , just think that in 2012, considered a tragic year for the brick market, but without the tragedy of the pandemic, the reduction was 24%. According to the Nomisma and Scenari Immobiliari study centers, after a slow recovery during the summer of 2020, due to the arrival of the second wave of infections also in 2021, this slight decline will continue and we will be able to speak of a real recovery only in 2022 and 2023, but this positive scenario is closely linked to the hope of a rebound in the general economic situation and to the success of the national vaccination plan.
Smart working effect
As Corriere della Sera points out in an analysis of its economic insert of January 2021, the real game changer of the residential real estate market could be the so-called smart working: working from home is a novelty for Italy and certainly has significant advantages. for workers, but also for companies that could reduce their operating costs, it is therefore easy to predict that alongside many workers who will return “in presence” once the pandemic is behind us, there will be others for which will go back further and will continue to work from their home, also benefiting from the imminent arrival in Italy of 5G connections. What does all this mean for the real estate market? First of all, a progressive shift from the city to the suburbs, from large urban centers to locations located in the hinterland or in tourist resorts, many second homes will become main homes. From this also derive the forecasts that see the real estate market of large Italian cities still in difficulty, with the exception of Milan, a city with a generally more dynamic market and which in 2024 will host the Winter Olympics. Also as a result of smart working, the demand for large and comfortable homes will grow, with spaces to be used exclusively for work from home and with a strong demand for homes with outdoor spaces. A good example of this trend are the data that MercatoImmobiliare.info provides on its website about the real estate situation in the province of Lecce, as in Salento the number of transactions and the value of the properties generally follows the values of the rest of the national territory, but putting the magnifying glass on the dynamics of prices and on real estate prices divided by type of house, it clearly emerges that the type that recorded the greatest percentage appreciation is made up of farmhouses and farms, whose prices show an increase of about 5% in the last 3 months, closely followed by detached houses and houses, growing but with minor increases. An increase of this magnitude achieved during a period of pandemic means that the famous Apulian farms, which have long been protagonists in worldly magazines and guides to luxury and well-being, are no longer seen only as fairy-tale ceremonial locations or luxurious tourist destinations. , but as real assets on which to build the future of one’s family.
Watch out for the Ecobonus
While the new homes will be designed to meet this new need of buyers to have homes that are also comfortable work environments, it is also foreseeable to bet a strong increase in interest for all used, old or currently disused properties. for which works and renovations are planned facilitated by the 110% bonus (topic that we will soon discuss in more detail, with a dedicated article on this blog).